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Enhancing energy system design and dispatch optimization models for improved climate resilience considerations
Macmillan, Madeline R.
Macmillan, Madeline R.
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2023
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2025-06-24
Abstract
Energy system planning models have been commonly used for design and dispatch decisions with the goal of cost minimization. Due to the threat climate change poses to energy system operations, however, these models have been gaining popularity for their ability to obtain optimal design and dispatch decisions with resilience considerations. In order to provide informed resilient planning decisions, there is a gap in how current energy system models address long-term uncertainties with respect to climate change. This research explores this gap and how augmentations to existing methods can improve resilient planning in the face of climate change. In this novel body of work, we first conduct a literature review of qualitative and quantitative resilience definitions and, based on our synthesis and observations, propose a working definition and metric to guide the remainder of this work. We then develop a novel scenario generation method combined with a two-stage stochastic program to account for long-term uncertainties including the effects of population and electrification trends on load growth and the impacts of climate change load growth and variable renewable energy availability. From this, we are able to analyze the implications of our novel approach to develop optimal design and dispatch recommendations that account for system resilience. We then broaden the application of our novel methodology to include heating and cooling loads and to evaluate the impacts of long-term uncertainty-informed resilience planning on system design and operations across different climates and building types. Through this body of work, we aim to improve existing energy system planning models by enabling more uncertainty-informed planning decisions that will, in turn, increase the resilience of future energy systems against climate change.
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