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Debris-flow susceptibility mapping in Colorado using Flow-R: calibration techniques and selected examples

McCoy, Kevin M.
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Abstract
The Colorado Geological Survey (CGS) has been using ArcGIS in combination with Flow-R to prepare county-wide debris-flow susceptibility maps for 43 counties in 13 priority areas comprising the mountainous portions of the state. Limited personnel, site access, and limited records of recent events constrain the CGS’s ability to calibrate models based on historical data or field observations. In response to these limitations, the CGS has developed methods to parameterize county-wide debris-flow source area and inundation area models in characteristic regions using recently available high-resolution (e.g., 1 m) digital elevation data. Method development has been continually evolving. The current process relies on an analyst who selects a subset of drainages of various sizes from unique regions within each county and manually identifies potential debris-flow source and deposition areas based on the digital terrain data or, if available, historical aerial imagery. The analyst records characteristics of identified source areas and initiates a series of test runs using a range of potential inundation area model parameters. The analyst visually interprets the source-area characteristics and inundation area model results and selects a single set of parameters to apply to similar drainages across the county. This paper presents current parameterization methods and discusses anticipated future improvements.
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