Development of a safeguards process simulation for open and closed nuclear fuel cycles

Abstract

SafeGuards Analysis (SGA) is a computational toolbox able to simulate different safeguards scenarios across a number of different fuel cycles and at many different scales within a Matlab Simulink framework. SGA functions by simulating Material Balance Areas (MBAs) under safeguards materials control and accountability and allows the user to define the uncertainty parameters of the associated flow and inventory measurements. The simulated safeguard system uses the uncertain measurement estimates to calculate mass-balance across the MBA. This mass balance is then evaluated by one or more of a number of different statistical tests to determine if a significant amount of material has been removed from the MBA. This thesis describes the development of SGA, and presents a number of example scenarios consisting of one or more MBAs. The goal of each of these scenarios is to determine the ability of SGA to calculate the Type I (false detect) or Type II (missed detection) error probability of the scenario. In each of these example scenarios, SGA generated reasonable results. To fully demonstrate SGA’s capabilities, the thesis also examines a more complicated scenario representative of a closed fuel cycle. This examination is paired with the operations research NUclear Measurement System Optimization (NUMSO) toolbox which calculates the best configuration of measurements based on a user-defined set of objectives. The two toolboxes allow a user to develop quickly develop a potentially optimal safeguards system with NUMSO, and then use SGA to examine the detailed behavior of that system. In every example considered in the thesis, SGA performs as designed.