Economics of gasoline subsidy cost reduction policy: case study of Indonesia, The

Abstract

A gasoline subsidy distorts the gasoline market with the resulting inefficiencies and takes substantial revenues that arguably could be spent elsewhere with a better impact on economic growth. Governments with such subsidies are aware of their cost yet face difficulties in removing the policy because of strong resistance from the public. This thesis discusses in three essays the problem faced by the government in removing the gasoline subsidy and provides an alternative policy in reducing the subsidy cost applied to the case of Indonesia. In the first essay, we examine the decision-making process from the government’s perspective that has an objective of generating savings to fund other programs while maintaining political power, and the influence that the general population has over the decision. Despite the immense literature on political power, there has yet to be any research that mathematically models the decision-making process of a government with influences from the general population. Under the benchmark scenario, the equilibrium strategy is to keep the subsidy intact. However, the results are found to be very sensitive to the magnitude of the shift in political power as well as the preferences of both the government and the people. In the second essay, we estimate the cross-price elasticity of regular gasoline with respect to premium gasoline price. The importance of such knowledge is to accurately determine the impact of fuel pricing policy that tends to have different rates of tax or subsidy depending on the grade of gasoline. Using data on the Mexican gasoline market, regular gasoline demand is estimated with an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Endogeneity of the price and structural break are also investigated. The cross-price elasticities between regular and premium gasoline is found to be -0.895, which confirms high substitutability among gasoline with different grades. In the third essay, we look at the unique case of Indonesia that only provides a subsidy for regular gasoline and in turn proposes an alternative policy that introduces a subsidy for premium gasoline at a lower rate to reduce the overall gasoline subsidy cost. There has yet to be any research that simulates price controls for gasoline with different grades. Simulations based on the calibrated demand are performed and the results confirm the existence of potential savings that are largely determined by the cross-price elasticities between regular and premium gasoline. The benchmark scenario, based on a recent study of substitutability between gasoline by grades, results in an 11.5% reduction in subsidy cost of around 950 million USD with a subsidy rate of Rp 2,254/liter. Furthermore, the optimal rate of subsidy for premium gasoline results in a reduction of inefficiency as consumers’ welfare increase by 6.8 trillion rupiahs (or 560 million USD).