Power and transportation crosswalk: residential retail power prices and mass market electric vehicle adoption, The

Abstract

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the domestic transportation sector is the next great climate change challenge facing our generation. Electrification of the drivetrain is the current focus of light-duty vehicle decarbonization. This strategy requires the power grid to accommodate both electric vehicle charging and an increase in low carbon power supply resources.

Power system operators will be tasked with managing changing demand (e.g., from electric vehicle charging) and supply (e.g., variable supply resources) patterns while maintaining system reliability and ensuring generator revenue sufficiency. Correspondingly, electric utilities will likely need to evolve how tariff rate designs reflect power system costs to consumers.

The simultaneous evolution of the power and transportation sectors could interact to inhibit or advance decarbonization goals. One such interaction is cross-sector pricing effects. My thesis research question asks, “Does a relationship currently exists between the price of electricity and used electric vehicle market prices?” I focus on the used car market given its responsiveness to fuel prices and potential role in mass electric vehicle adoption.

I investigate this question through an ecosystem of research on residential retail electric rates (Chapters 3 & 4) and the secondary market for plug-in electric vehicles (Chapters 2, 5, & 6). Econometric analysis enabled hypothesis testing, understanding relationships between predictor and outcome variables, and performing specific statistical calculations (e.g., survival and cost pass through analysis). Python programming supported collection of a unique data set of almost one million used electric and internal combustion engine light-duty vehicles, quantitative analysis of electricity rate designs, and manipulation of large data sets (e.g., smart meter). GIS software facilitated extraction of input data, geospatial processing of data, and visualization of results.

I conclude a statistically significant relationship does not exist between the price of power or level of historic power price volatility in a geographic area and the price of used battery electric vehicles in that area. These results are indicative of the early-stage secondary market for battery electric vehicles and should be re-explored as the market matures, electric vehicle consumers become more income diverse, and residential electric utility rate designs become more variable.