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Study of prediction methods of debris-flow peak discharge
Ikeda, Akihiko Mizuyama, Takahisa Itoh, Takahiro
Ikeda, Akihiko
Mizuyama, Takahisa
Itoh, Takahiro
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2019
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Abstract
Prediction of peak discharge of debris flow is one of the most important factors to mitigate debris-flow disasters. In general, peak discharge of debris flow has been either measured at the observation sites directly or estimated based on debris-flow velocity and cross-sections derived via field investigations (e.g., Mizuyama et al., 1992; Rickenmann, 1999, 2016). Based on these data, peak discharge of debris flow has been estimated from various aspects: (a) theoretical formulae, numerical simulations and laboratory flume experiments; (b) peak flood discharge using rational formulae; and (c) empirical methods based on the relationship between the peak discharge and total debris flow volume (magnitude) for many debris flow events (e.g., Takahashi, 1991; Mizuyama et al.; 1992, Ikeda et al., 2015). Peak discharge and magnitude of debris flow measured via direct observation are reliable. Although, while residual markings do not always accurately indicate riverbed and cross-sections during the debris flow, as revealed by field investigations. Also, no generally accepted prediction method of field investigation has been developed, therefore it is difficult to compare peak discharge and magnitude of debris flow among various sites. To date, to estimate peak discharge of debris flow, the focus has been on riverbed and cross-sections. The depth and length of riverbed deposits (riverbed sediment volume) between initiation zone of debris flow and downstream evaluation points cannot be used to accurately estimate magnitude. Here, we (i) improve the unified accurate prediction method of peak discharge and magnitude of debris flow via field investigations; (ii) compile and update data on numerous recent debris flows in Japan; (iii) analyze properties of peak discharge of debris flow in different occurrence type and the relationship between peak discharge and magnitude of debris flow; and (iv) offer the practical prediction method of peak discharge of debris flow.
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