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Analysis of global debris-flow fatalities and related socioeconomic factors from 1950 to 2011, An
Dowling, Casey Alexander
Dowling, Casey Alexander
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2013
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Debris flows cause significant damage and fatalities throughout the world. However, some debris flows only take a few victims, while others kill hundreds, and the differences between these events is not well understood. This study addresses the overall impacts of debris flows on a global scale from 1950 to 2011. Two hundred fourteen events with 77,788 fatalities were recorded from academic publications, newspapers, and personal correspondence. Spatial, temporal, and physical characteristics were documented and evaluated. In addition, multiple socioeconomic indicators were reviewed and statistically analyzed to evaluate if vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected by debris flows. This research provides evidence that populations with lower social, political, or economical standing are more at risk for debris-flow related fatality. Specifically, higher levels of fatalities tend to occur in developing countries, characterized by less wealth, more corrupt governments, and weaker healthcare systems. The median number of deaths per flow in developing countries is 23, but only 6 in advanced countries. The analysis also indicates that debris flow occurrence and deadliness is affected by seasonal precipitation patterns, as the most common trigger for fatal events has been found to be extreme precipitation, particularly in the form of large seasonal events like cyclones and monsoon storms. Rainfall caused or triggered 144 of the 214 fatal debris flows within the database. However, it is the more uncommon and catastrophic triggers, such as earthquakes, and landslide dam bursts that tend to create more deadly debris flows, with a median fatality count greater than 500 while rainfall induced debris flows have a median fatality rate of only 9 per event.
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